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Tuesday 6 August 2013

Cummins India Q1 misses forecast, net falls 8% at Rs 166 cr

Diesel and natural gas engines manufacturer Cummins India  reported a dismal performance on all parameters with the first quarter net profit falling 8 percent year-on-year to Rs 166 crore.

Total income from operations dropped 16.6 percent to Rs 1,049 crore during April-June quarter from Rs 1,259 crore in a year ago period.

Analysts on an average had expected it to report net profit at Rs 172 crore on revenues of Rs 1,258 crore.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) plunged 24.5 percent on yearly basis to Rs 176 crore and operating profit margin slipped 180 bps year-on-year to 16.7 percent in the first quarter as against analysts' forecast of 16.8 percent.

Impact of low demand

Revenues were weak on a high base of last year and moderation in South-based demand, which was driving bulk on demand.

Surge in purchase of gensets, driven by power shortage in South India, subsided during June quarter while domestic demand, which has been strong in the last few quarters, moderated during the quarter.

Since the second quarter of previous financial year 2012-13, exports have been showing moderating or declining trend, impacted by slowdown in global demand, particularly in the HHP segment.

Margins were under pressure due to moderating demand in both, domestic and export market, leading to unfavourable product mix.

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Fall in SPDR, Gold spot prices in 

global market: Mecklai


The gold prices in the global markets have seen a steep fall since the beginning of this year (2013) from 1690 levels to a shocking 1180 levels, a fall of 22 percent. This has obviously taken a toll on the largest gold fund ETF SPDR as it also dropped from 1342 in Jan 2013 to 918.6 in Aug (lowest since Feb 2009).



Gold is considered as a safe haven for most investors and the SPDR contributes to the global economy as a strong indicator of its current health in the bullion market. Its fast decline has become a worrisome factor for the global health. Crash in gold prices in April due to euro region was the key reason for fall in ETF SPDR gold asset .The ongoing USD 85 Billion Fed bond buying has increased the supply of dollar in the market which have made investors more aggressive on taking more risks on the back of improving economy. This has made them gold averse, pushing them away from safe havens and towards equities. Hence, the precious metal which was ever chased for its value and safe sentiment has now become less attractive with traders flocking for equities to get better returns.


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MCX Silvermic February contract gains


t 14:02 hrs MCX SILVERMIC August contract was trading at Rs 41992 up Rs 224, or 0.54 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 42132 and an intraday low of Rs 41637. So far 25093 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 15209, or 26.59 percent in the August series so far.

MCX SILVERMIC November contract was trading at Rs 42777 up Rs 239, or 0.56 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 42900 and an intraday low of Rs 42405. So far 2085 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 3226, or 7.01 percent in the November series so far.

MCX SILVERMIC February contract was trading at Rs 43504 up Rs 236, or 0.55 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 43551 and an intraday low of Rs 43101. So far 60 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved up Rs 1504, or 3.58 percent in the February series so far.

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Friday 2 August 2013

MCX Zinc negative; support 106 and 105.30
 
MUMBAI :- Zinc futures for June delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is negative and intra-day traders are advised to buy on dips for the day, according to our analyst at Commodity Online.
MCX zinc for June delivery was seen trading down by 1.57% at Rs.106.80 per kilogram as of 02.26 PM IST on Monday.
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 106 and 105.30 levels while resistance is seen at 109.45 and 110.35 levels,” said John Godson, Technical Analyst at Commodity Online.
“Buying sentiments are expected in the range of 106-106.5,” Godson noted.
Zinc prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) closed slightly up by $1809 per ton on Friday.
MCX zinc prices remained under pressure on concerns over economic recovery in China. Chinese HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index declined to 48.3 in June from May's final reading of 49.2, according to the data released by HSBC China last week.
Meanwhile, according to the preliminary data recently compiled by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), over the first four months of 2013 global supply of refined zinc metal exceeded demand by 48kt. Total reported inventory levels over this period decreased by 111kt.
As in the case of lead, Chinese zinc mine output figures for March and April were estimated as no information was published by the Chinese National Nonferrous Metals Association (CNIA).
In other countries decreases were recorded in Australia, Canada, Ireland and Mexico and increases in India, Peru and Turkey.
A rise in global refined zinc metal production of 3.4% was primarily a consequence of higher output in China, Italy and the Republic of Korea.
Increases in demand for refined zinc metal of 3.7% in Europe, 11.9% in the United States, 10.7% in India and 7.1% in China were partially balanced by declines in Japan and the Republic of Korea resulting an overall increase in global usage of 5.7%.


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Respite for Sterlite; copper smelter online after 3 months.



After 3 months, Sterlite 's copper smelter in Tuticurin is back online. With a clean chit from the National Green Tribunal (NGT), the company's expansion plans have also received a fillip reports CNBC-TV18's Poornima Murali.

This copper smelter, belonging to Sterlite Industries, is India's largest and is crucial to the company's operations and to copper-dependent industries, as it produces close to 30,000 tonnes of copper a month. So when it was shutdown for nearly 3 months following anti-pollution protests, the hit was palpable.

After being shut for 85 days, this copper smelter has now come online. It caters to 45 percent of India's copper requirement and has been a major source for country's infrastructure.

According to experts, the shutdown has not only resulted in a slowdown in pace at which crucial infrastructure projects are coming along, it has also led to the companies having to switch to more expensive imported copper from China. But with the plant up and running, some of this pressure should ease soon.

Despite protestor claims that this smelter is the worst source of pollution in the district, it has received a clean chit from the NGT. So Sterlite, which has lost around Rs 4,000 crores in revenues due to this shutdown, is now eager to embark on plans to expand the plant and double capacity.

P Ramnath, CEO, Sterlite (copper smelter) says that Rs 2500-3000 crore expansion plan will double the capacity sterlite on expansion path

The company also says it has invested Rs 500 crore in addressing pollution-related issues. But residents of the district whose anti-pollution protests have forced the plant to shutdown five times in the last 17 years are not feeling very reassured.

To allay these fears, the authorities have set up a committee to conduct inspections at this and other plants that are coming up.

Aashish Kumar, district collector, member, panel inspecting industries in Tuticorin says “The main problem is pollution. We have formed a committee to inspect industries in Tuticurin.”

But Sterlite maintains that contrary to allegations that it discharges waste water into the sea, this is world's only "zero discharge" smelter. Now the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board has moved the Supreme Court against the clean chit given by the NGT. But Sterlite is confident that the case will go in its favour and once expansion is complete, its Rs1,800 crore contribution to the state exchequer will go up further.



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Vedanta Aluminium optimistic of getting bauxite from Odisha...

Vedanta Aluminium optimistic of getting bauxite from Odisha

Days after restarting its refinery in Odisha's Kalahandi district following a seven-month shutdown due to a bauxite scarcity, Vedanta Aluminium Limited is optimistic about getting the ore from the state itself.

"If aluminium industries cannot survive in Odisha, having huge bauxite reserves, then they are not feasible anywhere in the country," Vedanta Aluminium Chief Operating Officer Mukesh Kumar said after meeting Chief Secretary J K Mohapatra here today. "Therefore, we hope that VAL will get the required raw material from the state."

VAL, a unit of Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Resources, restarted its 1 million tonne per annum alumina refinery at Lanjigarh on July 11. Bauxite for the plant, which is operating at 60 percent capacity, is being procured from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat.

Kumar's optimism stems from the recent submission of a report of an inter-ministerial committee of the state government to Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. The report of the panel headed by Finance Minister Prasanna Acharya is on the long-term linkage policy for supply of ore to local industries such as VAL's alumina plant at Lanjigarh. Kumar said the company was hopeful of a positive response from the committee's report.

"In our presentation to the ministerial committee on February 15 this year, we had clearly mentioned about our plans as well as the alternative sources of bauxite to keep alive the refinery. We hope that the committee's report will be positive," Kumar said.

VAL's refinery is adjacent to the Niyamgiri Hills, where the bauxite is proposed to be mined. The Supreme Court had on April 18 directed that the views of the local residents be taken on whether to allow mining on the Niyamgiri hills. Kumar declined to comment about the ongoing Gram Sabhas being held by the state government as per the direction of the apex court.

The tribal residents of Serkapalli village in Rayagada district unanimously rejected mining at the Niyamgiri hills, asserting their religious and cultural rights at the first gram sabha.



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Natural gas production to touch 183 mmscmd by FY20: ICRA


Domestic natural gas production , which has steadily declined in the last two years, is expected to increase from 111 mmscmd in FY13 to around 183 mmscmd by FY20 on the back of future discoveries, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday.

"We expect the domestic natural gas production to increase from 111 mmscmd last fiscal to around 125 mmscmd by FY16, from existing or already discovered fields. This could further increase to around 183 mmscmd by FY20," it said in a report.

"Domestic natural gas production has steadily declined over the last two years to 111 mmscmd in FY13 from 143 mmscmd in FY11 primarily due to fall in production of KG-D6 block from 56 mmscmd in FY11 to 26 mmscmd in FY13. "Factoring in certain production from future discoveries, we estimate domestic production could increase to about 200 mmscmd by FY25 notwithstanding the fall in the production from existing fields," it added.

The report further said the demand potential for natural gas is expected to significantly rise from 250 mmscmd at present to 360 mmscmd by FY20. "While the demand potential for natural gas is high, the actual offtake could critically depend upon the price competitiveness of gas against alternative fuels and timely commissioning of the proposed transmission pipeline infrastructure," it said.

The report also said it sees gas demand rising to 435 mmscmd by FY25. It is to be noted that actual consumption of gas was around 140 mmscmd in FY13, which dipped over the last two years from 177 mmscmd in FY11 due to constrained gas availability.

The study pointed out that despite increase in natural gas production, it is expected to be lower than the demand, which would prompt consumers to look at re-gasified  liquefied natural gas (R-LNG).


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Brent crude steady above $107 ahead of Fed outcome




Arent crude futures remained steady above USD 107 a barrel as investors looked to a Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the outlook for the US monetary stimulus programme that has bolstered demand in the world's No.1 oil consumer.

Investors also avoided taking big positions ahead of key economic data this week including US payroll numbers and manufacturing from China, the world's second largest oil consumer.
Brent crude futures had slipped 5 cents to USD 107.40 a barrel by 0453 GMT, after falling 0.8 percent last week.

US crude futures fell 14 cents to USD 104.41, pressured by a recovery in the US dollar. The North Sea benchmark's premium over its US counterpart widened to USD 3.02.

"Oil prices are pretty stable but there's quite a lot potentially happening this week and I think traders are prepared to wait for the data to start to come," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

"The market is kind of level but the risk will be to the downside."

The US central bank is expected to issue a statement after its two-day meeting ends on Wednesday. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank hold policy meetings this week as well.

The US payrolls report on Friday is also in focus, as an improving labour market would impact the timing of any tapering in Fed stimulus.

"The quiet session in most commodity markets suggested participants mostly kept to the sidelines ahead of a string of US data and policy meetings this week," ANZ analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, investors fretted that manufacturing surveys later this week might highlight weakness in China.

Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector may have contracted in July for the first time in 10 months, a Reuters poll showed, signalling a protracted slowdown in the world's second-largest economy as demand at home and abroad sags.

US inventory data will also offer clues on the country's oil demand. US commercial crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week for the fifth straight week, a Reuters poll of six analysts showed on Monday.

Losses in oil prices were limited as exports from several suppliers have been curbed in recent weeks.

The North Sea's Forties pipeline has cut pumping rates by about 40,000 barrels per day due to maintenance, trade sources said, tightening supply of the crude that underpins the Brent benchmark.

Assailants attacked an Islamist party office in Tripoli on Monday and a soldier was killed in fighting in Libya's eastern city of Benghazi, officials said, in an escalation of violence following the assassination of a political activist last week.

That prompted US oil company Marathon Oil Corp to study the sale of its stake in a key Libyan oil consortium, Waha.

The Libyan oil minister said that operations at the crude oil export terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf continued as normal, despite protests and strikes.

Also supporting oil prices were expectations that Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer, will report an output decline for 2013, its first after two years of robust gains.


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MCX Silvermic November contract slips 1%



At 15:55 hrs MCX SILVERMIC August contract was trading at Rs 40899 down Rs 529, or 1.28 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 41367 and an intraday low of Rs 40700. So far 48768 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 16302, or 28.50 percent in the August series so far.

                                        MCX Silvermic November contract slips 1%

MCX SILVERMIC November contract was trading at Rs 41737 down Rs 484, or 1.15 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 42319 and an intraday low of Rs 41562. So far 4491 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 4266, or 9.27 percent in the November series so far.

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Expect spot gold prices to trade negative: Sushil Finance


Sushil Finance's report on bullion

A spot gold price decreased by 1.03 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of strength in DX. Further, strong economic data from US increased the expectations among the investors that the US Federal Reserve may start trimming bond buying programme soon which added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, rise in stock markets reduced the demand for safe haven. Apart from that, decline in SPDR gold trust holding kept prices under pressure. In the Indian Markets, gold prices fell by 0.43 percent taking cues from Intl spot gold prices. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Gold prices touched an intraday low of 27760/10gms and closed at 27934/10gms.



Outlook: We expect spot gold prices to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in Dollar Index (DX). Further, rise in the stock markets may keep investors away from gold. Additionally, strong economic data from US increased the expectations among the investors that the US Federal Reserve may start trimming bond buying programme soon which may add downside pressure on the prices. Apart from that, SPDR gold trust holding is near 4 years low which may act as a negative factor for the prices. However, expectation of decline in US Non-farm employment change along with the anticipation of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and UK may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian Markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee may exert downside pressure on the prices.

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Wednesday 24 July 2013



MCX Lead positive; Nickel bearish till 848 level
MUMBAI :- Lead futures for July delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is positive and traders are advised to take long position for the day, according to our analyst at Commodity Online.
“For intra-day, support for the base metal is seen at 121.25 while resistance at 122.4 level. If the commodity breaks the level of 122.4 then the prices are expected trade till 122.9 and 123.5 levels,” said Melbin Noble, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
“Intra-day traders may take long position above 122.4 with the stop loss of 121.7 for the target of 123.5,” he noted.
Lead was seen trading marginally up supported by weak Indian Rupee since morning. MCX lead for July delivery was seen trading up by 0.29% at Rs.122.10 per kilogram as of 04.53 PM IST on Tuesday.
MCX Nickel
MCX nickel for July delivery is bearish and traders are advised to take short position for the day.
“For intra-day, resistance for the commodity is seen at 848 and it is expected to trade with a bearish trend till break of the same. Support is seen at 833 and 828 levels,” he added.
“Intra-day traders may take short position near 838 with the stop loss of 848 for the target of 828,” he said.

MCX nickel for July delivery was seen trading up by 0.07% at Rs.837.80 per kilogram as of 04.54 PM .
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MCX Nickel positive; Lead may witness buying sentiments

MUMBAI :- The trend in nickel futures for July delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is positive and the commodity is expected to trade with a positive bias for the day, according to our analyst at Commodity Online.
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 822 and 812 levels while resistance is at 835 and 847 levels,” said Melbin Noble, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
“Traders are advised to take long position near 830 with the stop loss of 822 for the target at 838 and 846 levels,” he pointed.
MCX nickel for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.29% at Rs.832.30 per kilogram as of 04.51 PM IST on Friday.
MCX Lead
Lead futures for July delivery is expected to trade sideways for the day and intra-day traders are advised to take advantage of both sides.
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 120.1 and 119.6 levels while resistance is at 121.4 and 123 levels,” said Melbin.
“Buying sentiments are expected at lower levels and traders are advised to take long position near 120.6 with the stop loss of 119.6 for the target of 121.8,” he said.
MCX lead for July delivery was seen trading down by 0.33% at Rs.121.10 per kilogram as of 04.51 PM IST on Friday.
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MCX Silver may trade positive; resistances 41500, 42000

MUMBAI : The trend in silver futures for September delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is positive and intra-day traders may buy at lower levels.
“For intra-day, resistance for the commodity is seen at 41500 and 42000 levels while support is seen at 40700 and 40400 levels. The commodity prices are expected to trade positive for the day,” said Tarng Parmar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
MCX silver for September delivery was seen trading up by 2.09% at Rs.41196 per kilogram as of 03.45 PM IST on Monday.
In the international market, bullion recorded a significant up-tick on Monday supported by weak Dollar and hopes that the US Federal Reserve would not roll back its monetary stimulus till the economic growth in the country backs to its track.
The US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony and statements were deciphered by the markets to the effect that stimulus curtailment is still a distant goal. This coupled with China's central bank giving added powers to banks under its supervision to set interest rates on their own ensured that gold futures climbed and moved past the $1300 mark.
The move by China is an attempt to bring its banking system in line with market realities. As banks get more powers to set interest rates, they could frame policies that may incentivise gold buying by Chinese.
US data on Existing Home Sales is scheduled to be released at 07.30 PM IST today and the white metal traders may get trading clues from the data released.
Silver for September delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading up by 2.52% at $19.947 per troy ounce as of 03.59 PM IST on Monday.
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MCX Natural Gas trend uncertain; support 218, 215

MUMBAI : Natural gas futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is volatile and the commodity is expected to continue with the trend for the day, according to our analyst at Commodity Online.
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 218 and 215 levels while resistance is seen at 223 and 225 levels. Intra-day traders are advised to remain cautious while taking positions for the day,” said Tarang Parmar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
MCX natural gas for August delivery was seen trading down by 0.85% at Rs.220.80 per mmBtu as of 01.18 PM IST on Wednesday.
NYMEX natural gas prices declined on Wednesday on normal weather expectations across the major natural gas consuming areas in the United States. NYMEX natural gas rose 1.8 percent on Tuesday to $3.743 on rumour that the heat wave last week reduced US stockpiles.
NYMEX natural gas futures for August delivery was seen trading down by 0.55% at $3.723 per mmBtu as of 01.36 PM IST on Wednesday.
Less than expected rise in US natural gas inventories was seen pressuring the commodity movement to certain extent.
Working gas in storage was 2,745 Bcf as of Friday, July 12, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 414 Bcf less than last year at this time and 34 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,779 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 101 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 37 Bcf.
Stocks in the Producing Region were 36 Bcf above the 5-year average of 977 Bcf after a net injection of 15 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 31 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 6 Bcf. At 2,745 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
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Perpetual volatility: Will investors abandon Gold?

By Rakesh NeelakandanGold futures are weighing and responding in earnest to the Ben Bernanke Congressional testimony of the last week. While the futures look comfortable in dealing with the anticipation that the Fed would not taper as soon as the markets had thought, lending it some buying appetite, the prospect of a tapering lingers with an uneasy calm.
“There’s still a bit of a thirst for the metal,” Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin said to Bloomberg.
“Given that Bernanke has already suggested that tapering will only occur when they’re very comfortable with the economic outlook, we’re going to see tapering on the agenda but it’s going to be some time before it actually starts,” he added.
Gold on the Comex for delivery on August 13 was seen trading at $1,338.85/oz, a gain of $4.15 or 0.31% as of 10.05 AM IST.
The multi-billion Dollar question used to be this: When will the US Federal Reserve start to taper? After a series of testimonies this year, the answer looks very much elusive. The Fed could not be blamed on this, because they are doing what that is mandated out of them.
The Fed do own the trigger of shooting the Quantitative Easing measures point-blank. Only thing is that they cannot pull it at their will. In fact, having started this whirlpool of money printing, a genie is out, which is refusing to go into the bottle.
The markets have in effect become QE fetish to such an extent that it would be difficult to pull the trigger on QE execution. Playing to the gallery is imperative in a politicized economy.
Now, the mult-billion Dollar question is if the QE measures would be tapered at all? High profile leadership at PIMCO, world's biggest institution investing in bond markets, believe that the ultra-loose monetary policy may continue until it is 2016.
That is no walking distance from 2013!
The fact remains that gold futures would see extended periods of volatility as data releases occur every time. The Fed has clubbed the QE measures to a recovery in job markets, housing markets and a moderate and healthy inflation. Each data release in this category, fluctuating as each one is, would take the futures on a roller coaster ride.
Any negative sign is taken for a point to rally up and any positive sign on economy could be interpreted as a point to rally down in gold. Now imagine that happening all the way to 2016! That is a perfect incentive for investors to abandon gold. Especially when there are other less volatile instruments to conduct trade and make money.
But, at some point in time, all these QE measures would have to be curtailed. That would be the time when markets would see the perfect storm.
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